Tropical Storm Arthur’s track could spell trouble for July 4 weekend

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PIX11 WEATHER CENTER — Not much has changed from Tuesday afternoon in terms of further development for Tropical Storm Arthur.

It continues to meander off the eastern coastline of Florida with 50 mph winds. We do expect it to start drifting northward within the next 12 hours or so.

The latest models continue to agree that the storm will gather speed and strength as its heads up northward, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina before moving northeast and out to sea.

The storm is expected to be closest to us by Friday afternoon. Even though the storm is expected to track some 200 miles south and east of our area, its waves will affect our area.

Strong and dangerous rip currents are expected the shoreline and may close beaches due to the heavy surf. The winds seem to be not much of a factor as the storm wind field will only reach around 100 miles from the center of the.

Nonetheless, a strong gust of wind is possible from time to time. Parts of the area may get heavy rain depending on where the cold front and the storm are located. There is still wide uncertainty of the location and timing of when the heaviest rains will occur.

As the storm moves further out by Friday Night, there could be few lingering showers. This could be good news for those who will see any fireworks displays for the holiday.

Here’s a simple timeline of what to expect from this storm.

  • Overnight: Arthur starts to move slowly northward. Winds estimated at 60 mph
  • Wednesday afternoon: Still off the coast of Florida and nudging north. Winds at 65 mph
  • Thursday midday: Arthur could become a minimal hurricane off the coast of South Carolina with 80 mph winds. Rain develops over New York as Arthur starts to interact with the cold front.
  • Friday morning: Rain continues over New York. The storm itself is has sped up and located in Outer Banks of North Carolina with winds of 85 mph.
  • Friday Midday, the storm will be closest to us some 200 miles south and east of the area. Expect the surf and rip current to be most severe at this point.
  • Saturday: Arthur is located in the Gulf of Maine and is losing its tropical characteristics. At this point, it is also steamrolling its way into the Canadian Maritimes.

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