NEW YORK (PIX11) — It is smooth sailing for the tri-state region from the weather department. An upper level low will track into the Eastern Canada leaving us with just a few clouds around for the next few days. An area of high pressure will then move in and bring us clear skies for the latter part of the week. All eyes are in the Carribbean as Hurricane Ian rapidly strengthens. The storm intensified to a category 2 with winds of 100 mph early Monday evening and is battering Western Cuba with strong winds, flooding rains and a storm surge of 9 to 14 feet.
For Florida, Hurricane Warnings have been issued for Tampa and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of the Florida Keys including Key West. Ian is expected to track well west of the Florida Keys, but it is expected to hook right toward the Florida Gulf Coast. Some of the coastal communities, including Tampa may see a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet as the storm makes landfall sometime on Thursday. What is concerning is that the storm could funnel water up Tampa Bay and create a storm surge that could devastate that part of the state.
Along with the storm surge, the storm is expected to dump a lot of rain. As much as 6 to 12 inches of rain could fall with some spots getting as much as 20 inches. Considerable flash flooding and significant flash flooding is to be expected as a result.
As for our region, it is fairly tranquil for the next few days.
Monday night will feature a few patchy clouds around. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s.
There will still be a few clouds around on Tuesday as the upper-level low drifts into Northeastern Canada. Temperatures remain to be in the lower 70s.
A weak frontal boundary will bring a few more clouds around on Wednesday. Highs top out at around 70.
An area of high pressure then moves in for the rest of the week bringing mainly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60s.
The weekend starts out fine, but clouds will be on the increase on Sunday. Temperatures will hover around 70 degrees.
For the latter part of Sunday and into early next week, the forecast becomes dependent on what Ian does. By the time it tracks into the interior sections of the southeast, it will become a remnant low, but it will still bring torrential downpours, strong winds, and the treat of tornadoes. The storm will interact with a frontal boundary in the Mid-Atlantic States, but the forecast models disagree on where it goes from there.
The best-case scenario is that the storm will stay to the south and shift east, keeping us dry. The other possibility is that the front will give way somewhat and allow the chance for some rain by next Monday. At this point is too soon to tell and all these details will be determined in the coming days.