NEW YORK (PIX11) — We are on track for yet another significant winter storm this year. The most recent winter wallop dumped somewhere between almost six and ten inches at the local weather reporting stations on January 7th. 

That storm was a quick mover with steady precipitation between 6 and 8 hours. Most of the accumulation occurred before dawn. With plenty of cold air in place, snow was light and fluffy allowing the snow to pile up fairly quickly. For that reason, the snow was the main impact. However, the impending weekend winter storm offers up a different scenario with some uncertainty.

This nor’easter is set to serve up a one two punch across the northeast this weekend. Winter storm watches will go into effect Friday evening into Saturday for the five boroughs, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Southern CT, Central and Southern New Jersey. Depending on how conditions evolve will determine if the watch gets upgraded. 

January 2022 Nor'easter

In the meantime, a cold front is expected to arrive tomorrow morning which may spark a few snow showers during the day on Friday. However, the main event is slated to arrive Friday night into Saturday. The frontal boundary will reinforce the extremely cold air setting the stage for snow to accumulate quickly.

Right now, there is confidence that a low-pressure system will develop in the mid-Atlantic and head north. The counterclockwise flow around it will combine the frigid temps to the north and moisture from the Atlantic to make this an all-snow event.

The amount of snow will be determined by where the center of low-pressure tracks. The GFS model indicates that the system will be far enough offshore with little no accumulation across the tri-state.

January 2022 Nor'easter

NAM shows the storm further west which could yield much higher amounts to make this a major blockbuster snow event with over a foot in the city, almost 30 inches across eastern Long Island, and only a few inches in the Hudson Valley. 

January 2022 Nor'easter

The European model falls somewhere in the middle with around 8 inches in the city, over a foot across Long Island, 8-10 inches in Central and Southern New Jersey, and a few inches north of the city.

January 2022 Nor'easter

Even though models disagree, there are some consistencies pointing to Long Island and New England being the hardest hit. It’s also important to note that there will be changes leading up to the event. Right now, it’s difficult to nail down snowfall rates per hour and where the heavy bands will set up.

Here’s what we know for sure. Expect heaviest snow early Saturday morning and afternoon. Travel will be hazardous, and some roads will be impassible. Expect airport delays and cancellations due to strong winds and snow. 

January 2022 Nor'easter

With wind gusts between 40 to 50+ mph, anticipate blizzard conditions which will cause low visibility, blowing and drifting snow. Scattered tree limbs, power lines and power outages will also be a concern with peak winds Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Minor to locally moderate coastal flood impacts and beach erosion will also be a concern, especially during times of high tide.

Dry weather returns on Sunday along with bone chilling temperatures. You can expect milder weather by Wednesday along with a chance for showers. As always, stay tuned for updates.