It was a stormy start to Thursday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred passed through the region. A few tornado warnings occurred in New Jersey and the National Weather Center sent investigators to survey the damage in Morris County for a possible twister around Rockaway Township.
Now that the storm has basically left the region at this point, Tropical Storm Henri is now the storm to monitor closely. We may see watches being issued by the National Hurricane Center as soon as Friday.
Tropical Storm Henri is some 450 miles off the coast of the Carolinas, and it is expected to track northward, becoming a hurricane by late Friday night. Right now, it looks to aim toward Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard, however Eastern Long Island is within the cone of uncertainty, indicating a low possibility that the storm could track a little more west and cause a direct impact. Fortunately, most forecast models indicate that the center of the storm is well east of Montauk Point.
That being said, the tri-state region will feel the effects of Henri, though it won’t as be severe as what New England will be dealing with.
What is certain is that coastal sections will have rough surf and dangerous rip currents starting on Saturday. Beach erosion will be likely as well. Beyond this, the confidence of the potential impacts lessens.
Henri will make its closest pass Sunday afternoon, but the storm will be big and parts of the region could feel tropical storm force gusts as early as late Saturday night. The probability of tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher are becoming likely for the Twin Forks with a 60-80% probability of happening. The chance decreases east to west quite rapidly. For the city, it is a 20-30% chance.
The same thing will likely apply in terms of rainfall. The East End of Long Island could get flooding downpours associated with Henri, whereas heavy rain for the city and points west will be more localized. The timing of the rain and the exact amounts are not yet clear.
Once the storm arrives in New England, there is a chance it will slow down, keeping the unsettled conditions around on Monday.
We must stress that the exact track, timing, and intensity of Henri is far from being set in stone. For that reason, rainfall amounts, peak winds and any storm surge have not yet been determined.