Monday felt a little more humid as a southwesterly wind brought a warm start to the week. A cold front slowly drifting into the region from the north and west could bring a few thunderstorms that could be on the severe side late in the evening. We’ll have a break on Tuesday, but the risk of thunderstorms makes a return late on Wednesday and it could linger into Thursday.
On Monday night, a cluster of storms will approach late in the evening, and it has the potential to be severe. The National Weather Service put the city and Northern New Jersey under a slight risk indicating that these storms could contain damaging winds as well as large hail. Fortunately, these storms look to be progressive, so the risk of flash flooding was limitedle. A few additional showers could develop overnight but they should not be severe. Temperatures will be in the 60s.
In New Jersey, power outages persisted through the night. By 11:30 p.m., JCP&L reported more than 43,000 customers without power.
As the frontal boundary is expected drape over the region on Tuesday, the day will feature a good deal of clouds for much of the day. Late in afternoon, the sun may break through allowing skies to brighten a bit. It will remain to be muggy as temperatures climb to around 80 degrees.
Wednesday will be a warm and humid day as a southwesterly flow develops. Temperatures will climb into the mid 80s in the city, but some inland areas could approach 90 degrees. Late in the day a cold front will approach bringing back the risk of scattered showers and storms. The front may carry a lot of tropical moisture that could produce torrential downpours resulting in the chance for more flash flooding. For now, the best chance of getting the heavy rain will be for areas well north and west of the city.
The front will meander around on Thursday, and it could possibly linger on Friday. That will keep the risk of some showers through the period. On top of that, a tropical wave that may develop well offshore later in the week could enhance the frontal boundary bring heavier downpours by Friday. At this point, it is far from certain, and it will have to be watched. For Thursday and Friday, temperatures will hover around 80.
Tracking the Tropics
The tropical wave we’ve been tracking over southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico has been officially named. Tropical Storm Nicholas is the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is particularly concerning because Ida slammed the gulf coast just two weeks ago. The area is already saturated, and more rain is expected which will create more problems in the cleanup efforts.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Storm surge will be the main concern along the coast of Texas. Also, periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week.
There are a few other areas we are watching, including an upper-level low north of the Bahamas. This disturbance could further develop and bring severe weather to the East Coast. It’s still early, but we’ll keep an eye on it.