Breaking Update: A tornado warning issued early Thursday for Dutchess and Ulster counties in New York was allowed to expire at 5:45 a.m., according to the National Weather Service.
An earlier tornado warning for Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties was allowed to expire at 5:15 a.m.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will bring a few heavy downpours to the tri-state region. Some of these heavy rainbands could spin out an isolated tornado during the overnight hours.
Fortunately, the effects of the former tropical system will be on the light side when compared to areas north and west of the city. A Tornado Watch has been issued through the evening hours in Pennsylvania. Flash Flood Watches are also in effect for the same spots in the state as well as Upstate New York and parts of New England. Sullivan and Pike Counties are included in the watch.
For those areas under the watch, widespread heavy downpours could bring as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain, leading to flash flooding and swollen streams.
For the city, the early evening hours should be dry, but very humid. The risk of showers will increase heading into the midnight hour. Any heavy downpours that do develop will pass through the region late at night. Again, the risk of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Due to the localized nature of the tropical downpours, some spots may get as much as an inch. Other spots could get barely a tenth of an inch or less of rain.
A few leftover downpours are still possible for areas east of the city on Thursday morning. Skies will partially clear out during the day and bring temperatures up into the mid to upper 80s. The humidity will be a factor making it feel more like around 90 or so. That humidity could also spark up a late day thunderstorm as well.
Friday looks to be a better day as high pressure tries to nudge into the region. It will be warm and muggy through with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
On Saturday, the humidity will stick around keeping the threat around for another thunderstorm. Overall, it looks okay with highs in the lower 80s.
Things start to look rather dicey between Sunday and Monday. The forecast models vary widely with what they want to do with Tropical Storm Henri. The storm is located near Bermuda and it is being steered westward around an area of high pressure before it expected to curve northward as a hurricane.
The National Hurricane Center’s official track puts New York City on the edge of the cone of uncertainty indicating that there is an outside chance that the storm could head our way as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. The likely scenario though has it heading toward Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard.
Nonetheless, it is a storm to be watched very closely as there is very little consensus being that it is over roughly 4 to 5 days away. For this reason, it is too soon to determine potential impacts to our region from Henri.