(WHTM) – Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro continues to hold a double-digit lead in the race for Governor, according to a new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll.
The poll found Shapiro with 53% support, consistent with a CBS/YouGov poll released earlier this month. A Trafalgar Poll also released in September showed just a two point lead for Shapiro.
With Mastriano receiving 42%, only four percent of voters in the Muhlenberg poll said they were undecided or would support a third party candidate.
Shapiro also held an 18 point lead over Mastriano in favorable rating with a near mirror image of support: 31 percent found Shapiro unfavorable compared to 31% who said they had a favorable opinion of Mastriano. Sixteen percent of voters said they hadn’t heard of Shapiro or Mastriano.
Five percent of Democrats said they would support Mastriano, while 17% of Republicans said Shapiro would get their vote. Independents were split at 45% each with 8% undecided.
Mastriano led among voters without a college degree and voters 65 and older, while Shapiro led among men, women, college voters, and those between 18-65. Shapiro had a 14 point lead with female voters and 27 point lead among voters 18-34.
The issue most important for Pennsylvania voters when casting their midterm ballot is the economy with 34% saying inflation or the economy. Twenty percent said abortion/reproductive rights were their top priority.
Sixty-one percent of those interviewed said they believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 420 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between September 13 and 16, 2022. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (126) and cell phones (294). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race, educational attainment and the 2020 election results to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters, both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters’ files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania with individuals who voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections, or who had voted in either the 2022 primary elections or 2021 general election, or if they were a new registrant since the 2020 Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. Open-ended comments were coded into categories by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO), and data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 28.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick, Director of the MCIPO, in conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed, please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at firstname.lastname@example.org.