NEW YORK (PIX11) — New York Democrats are not sold on former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s comeback as he attempts to run for Congress in New York’s newly restructured 10th Congressional District, according to a new PIX11/Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released Thursday.
The poll also found there is a clear favorite in an election battle between two long-time members of Congress — in New York’s 12th Congressional District.
Both districts were greatly reworked during a contentious redistricting process that ultimately resulted in court-ordered maps generated by a special master. District 12 is now comprised of Midtown and areas surrounding Central Park. District 10 is now Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Carroll Gardens, Park Slope and Sunset Park.
In NY-10, the poll found 77% of voters remain undecided. Among those who have a preference, Rep. Mondaire Jones, who currently represents the Hudson Valley, leads the race with 7% of the vote. De Blasio is at 6% and Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou is at 5%.
About 64% of Democrats in NY-10 disapprove of the job de Blasio did as mayor of New York City, according to the poll.
“That does not bode well for his candidacy necessarily,” said Camille Mumford, with Emerson College Polling.
Jones made history in 2020 when he became among the first of two gay Black men to be elected to Congress. Following a redistricting process that would have made running in his old seat tough, Jones decided to run in the city because it contains Greenwich Village and the Stonewall Inn — the birthplace of the LGBTQ+ rights movement. He said he has also worked in the district.
However, PIX11’s new poll raises a concern for Jones: 87% of NY-10 Democrats said it was somewhat or very important for a candidate to live in the district.
“His support may be hitting a ceiling,” Mumford said.
In NY-12, redistricting pitted Rep. Carolyn Maloney against Rep. Jerry Nadler. Both have served nearly 30 years in Washington.
Voters surveyed had a clear preference: Maloney. She is the choice of 31% of those surveyed. Nadler follows with 21% and Rana Abdelhamid is the highest polling among several challengers at 6%. About 36% of voters remain undecided.
Issues important to voters
The top issue for NY-12 Democrats is crime, at 40%. The economy, including inflation, followed at 23%.
In both NY-12 and NY-10, hate crimes are also a major concern with 89% of those surveyed in each district either very or somewhat concerned.
“This is also reflective of the crime concern we see in New York; much higher than the national level and other states as well,” Mumford said.
The reason for the hate crime concern might come down to the demographics of these new districts combined with a rise in hate crimes locally and nationally. District 10 is home to Chinatown and Brooklyn’s Chinatown in Sunset Park—making it the second-largest population of Asian Americans in New York City. District 12 has large numbers of Jewish and Asian residents.
The twin polls were conducted at the same time, from May 24 to May 25. Emerson surveyed 500 likely Democratic voters for each poll using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response. The margin of error is +/- 4.3.
