The inclusion of more than 125,000 absentee ballots in a ranked choice count could signal a likely winner or a long legal battle and messy hand re-count.
The latest corrected count last week after the Board of Elections initially messed up shows Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams defeating former Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia by about 15,000 votes.
Both have been making the case the absentee ballots favor them: 32% are from the Garcia stronghold of Manhattan and 26% from the more populous Adams stronghold of Brooklyn.
Basil Smikle, who managed Ray McGuire’s campaign and is a veteran of New York Politics, said at this point, any of the three main candidates — including Maya Wiley, who’s running a close third — could be the nominee.
“There is still an opportunity and a path, albeit narrow for Maya Wiley and Kathryn Garcia,” Smikle said.
Current results show that in the second to last round of ranked counting, Wiley is just about 350 votes behind Garcia. Last week, Wiley filed court papers suggesting she may ask for a hand recount if things remained that close.
Adams and Garcia have also filed placeholder lawsuits to protect their right to challenge the results.
However, if Wiley stays in third, we do have some understanding of how her voters would influence the race: 52% have Garcia lower on their ballots, and just 20% have Adams. Wiley could also surge ahead of Garcia when absentee ballots are factored in.
It is unclear what time the BOE will release more results Tuesday.