(WHTM) — Republican Mehmet Oz is slightly favored to win the Pennsylvania Senate race for the first time since June, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The election forecasters gave Oz a 57% chance of winning the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania over Democrat John Fetterman going into the Nov. 8 election.
On June 1, FiveThirtyEight originally gave Oz a 65% chance of winning that quickly dwindled when polls showed Fetterman with a commanding lead.
Fetterman led in FiveThirtyEight’s forecast since June 22, peaking on Sept. 15 with an 83% chance of winning the Senate seat.
Between Sept. 15 and Oct. 3 Fetterman’s chances of winning dropped 10%, and leading into the Oct. 25 abc27 debate, Fetterman’s chances of winning dropped to 58%.
In the days following the debate, polls showed the race within the margin of error and with Oz ahead between 1-3%, though no candidate received 50% in the final week’s worth of polls.
FiveThirtyEight’s final popular vote projection expects Oz to win 49.5% to a projected 48.5% for Fetterman.
A race within 0.5% would trigger a recount in Pennsylvania, which occurred after the May Republican primary election when Oz and Dave McCormick finished within less than 1,000 votes of each other.
Voters have until 8 p.m. to vote in person or return their vote by mail ballot.
