(WHTM) – With less than a week until the November 8 election, Democrat John Fetterman and Repubilcan Mehmet Oz are tied in the latest Pennsylvania Senate race poll.
The survey released by Muhlenberg College/Morning Call shows Oz and Fetterman tied at 47% (including leaning voters) with 3% selecting a third candidate and 2% undecided.
Oz’s numbers in the October poll were up 3% compared to Muhlenberg’s September poll, while Fetterman was down 2%.
Fetterman’s favorable rating was up 1% compared to Muhlenberg’s September poll, now standing at 46%. Oz’s favorable rating was 2% higher, now up to 31%.
Fetterman held a double-digit lead among voters 18-34, and Oz led among the 35-50 voters.
Nearly 90% of respondents said they are definitely going to vote this year.
The survey of 460 likely voters was conducted between October 24-28, starting one day before the abc27 U.S. Senate debate between Fetterman and Oz, their only debate of the general election.
Methodological Statement
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 460 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between October 24 and 28, 2022. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (144) and cell phones (316). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the survey is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race, educational attainment and the 2020 election results to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania with individuals who voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections, or who had voted in either the 2022 primary elections or 2021 general election, or if they were a new registrant since the 2020 Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. Data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 29.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) in conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at cborick@muhlenberg.edu.
Election Day is November 8.
