When will it feel like winter?

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NEW YORK — The last six months have seen temperatures above normal.

It has been most notable the last two months when temperatures have run as much as 10 to 20 degrees or more above normal.

The pattern that has set up is completely opposite of last year. A large part of the reason is El Nino, the exceptionally warm water in the Pacific.

The jet stream is currently aligned so that cold air and storminess is pushing down across the western states.

When the jet stream sinks in one area, it has to push up in another. So here in the east, the warmth prevails as the cold air is bottled up out west.

jetstream

This pattern will break down from time to time over the next week or two.

When it does, cold air will be able to flow over to the eastern half of the nation.

However, every indication points to the jet stream positioning itself back to where it is now.

In other words, any cold outbreaks will likely be short lived and then temperatures will return to above normal.

The chance for a white Christmas is low to begin with for our part of the nation, usually just 25 percent or less.

As of now, the chance for this year is slim to none.

However, if one of those brief cold outbreaks can meet up with some moisture from the southern jet stream, there might be a chance.

Dreaming of a white Christmas seems more likely though.