After a raw and rainy weekend, the last few days of February will be pleasant. High pressure dominates bringing temperatures well above where they should be for this time of the year. It all ends just as the calendar flips over to March. A potent storm will slide underneath the region bringing the potential of heavy rain, gusty winds and some coastal flooding.
After dealing with a good deal of clouds during most of Monday, the skies finally cleared up late in the afternoon as high pressure finally pushed into the region. Temperatures will drop down to around 40 in the city while areas away from the coast go down to around 30 or so.
Skies will remain sunny Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure continues to slide over the region. Afternoon temperatures will continue to slide upward through the period peaking out in the lower to mid 50s on Tuesday, then the upper 50s on Wednesday. Areas along the south shore of Long Island may end up a few degrees cooler especially on Wednesday as the winds come off the cooler ocean.
Thursday may start out dry and mild with highs around 50, but clouds will thicken as the next storm system approaches. A few showers may develop during the latter part of the day and eventually become heavy during the overnight period.
Temperatures overnight will remain well above freezing indicating that it will mainly be a rain event for all, however higher elevations well north and west of the city, may have a changeover to snow or sleet for a period sometime late on Thursday night. Regardless, temperatures will climb well above freezing across the region Friday morning making any frozen precipitation to change back to rain. By Friday afternoon the rain should finally taper off.
Aside from the heavy rain, the wind will also become an item, particularly along the coast. An onshore flow is expected to develop as the system slides west to east Thursday night into Friday. That will push water along the coastal sections creating flooding issues during the high tide cycles as well as some beach erosion. There are early indications are that moderate coastal flooding with a storm surge of 2 ½ feet is a risk.
All the exact details with regards to the timing, rainfall amounts, snow/sleet amounts (if any), and coastal flooding will continue to be tuned up as we progress through the week.