Hurricane Jose could come within striking distance of the tri-state area next week, with heavy rain, winds and flooding possibly slamming parts of the region.
As of Friday afternoon, Jose's five-day track, depicted in a "cone of error" by the National Hurricane Center, includes the Jersey Shore, Long Island and even New York City within the possible area of a landfall. The cone is wide, with New York on the western edge of it, and it's still possible the storm will veer farther out to sea, reducing impacts in our region. The official track still keeps Jose well off shore but close enough to lash parts of the area with rain, wind and flooding.
Because of the potential for the storm to track farther west, the whole region needs to be on alert.
Jose was at one point a powerful hurricane, but encountered a less hospitable environment and was downgraded to a tropical storm, but the system picked up strength again and returned to hurricane status as of 5 p.m. Friday as it tracks north from its current location well east of the Bahamas.
The hurricane center has Jose well off the North Carolina coast by Monday morning, and well southeast of Long Island by Wednesday morning. But again, the storm could track further west toward the coast or even more out to sea.
Regardless, by the time Jose reaches our latitude, it is expected to be downgraded again to tropical storm status, but still present significant hazards.
The New York office of the National Weather Service put out a forecast advisory Friday offering forecasters' best thinking of what might happen Tuesday into Wednesday in the metropolitan area, which is summarized below.
FLOODING AND SURGE
Complicating matters will be a new moon on Tuesday, which means astronomical tides could be running high just as the storm nears. That could mean minor to moderate coastal flooding, mainly on the Atlantic Ocean South Shore back bays.
Flooding is possible in shoreline communities and flood-prone areas, raising the risk of property damage. The National Weather Service says it's possible that low-lying coastal areas and shoreline roads could become impassible and a few even washed out.
One to 2 inches of rain are possible across Long Island based on the current storm track, with lesser amounts farther west. The heaviest rain will be Monday night through Tuesday night. Minor urban flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas is possible.
Tropical-storm force winds are possible, mainly across Long Island and southern Connecticut.
If the track does not deviate from Friday's projections, tropical storm-force winds could begin as early as 2 a.m. Tuesday and continue through 2 a.m. Wednesday.
Trees and power lines could be felled by the storm, leading to power outages, property damage and hazardous driving conditions.
The weather office notes that if the storm moves farther east, wind, rain and flooding will be lessened, but if tracks west, more of the tri-state area will have to worry about tropical-storm conditions.
PIX11 will be tracking the storm all weekend. Download our app for storm alerts the minute we get them.